• Russia’s Fat Tail Risks

    Russia’s Fat Tail Risks

    While analyzing the investment climate in Russia, specifically within the energy sector, it is imperative to view recent events within their historical and geopolitical contexts. First and foremost: the ongoing crisis in Ukraine is not an anomaly. It is a natural symptom of deepening structural weaknesses in Russia’s governance. While […]

  • Bearish On Russia:  Why the Risk-Reward Ratio is Perpetually Imbalanced

    Bearish On Russia: Why the Risk-Reward Ratio is Perpetually Imbalanced

    In spite of Angela Merkel’s recent announcement that Vladimir Putin has “lost touch with reality,” Russia’s head of state is quite sane. But that knowledge should not be any less worrisome for investors. The main rub is that Putin operates according to a different logic than that of most major […]

  • The Kondratieff Wave

    The Kondratieff Wave

    For the last nine months, I’ve been busy covering ‘Abenomics’ in Japan and recently came across commentary discussing a new golden age for Japan based on Kondratieff Wave patterns (also known as K-waves). I have always been a big believer of long-term regularities in the behavior of economies and can […]

  • World Economic Forum

    Can Russia Remain a Credible Member of the BRIC?

    Since the first conception of BRIC came into being with the 2001 landmark Goldman Sachs paper, many analysts and investors have called for the ouster—or replacement—of Russia as one of the coveted BRIC nations. Russia must address specific issues that are hampering its ability to compete not only with the […]

  • .E.T.

    Malaysia’s Election: Fiscal Future at Risk

    Malaysia’s 13th general election, scheduled for May 5, is shaping up to be the tightest race in the country’s near 60-year history. Behind the divisive rhetoric between the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition and opposition Pakatan Rakyat (PR), neither camp has formulated a viable, long-term solution to one of the […]

  • jpellgen

    How Can Equities Perform Better When GDP Growth is Slow?

    Even though growth rates in emerging markets have galloped past those in the US, the S&P 500 has outperformed the MSCI since the middle of the Great Recession in developed markets. The answer may lie in 19th century thought. In Knut Wicksell’s 1898 book, “Interest and Prices,” the Swedish economist […]

  • The Geopolitics of Sovereign Wealth Funds

    The Geopolitics of Sovereign Wealth Funds

    The recent proliferation of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) has made a distinct impact on the nature of global capital flows, altering an international financial architecture in which developed countries have invested their accumulated wealth in “peripheral” emerging markets. Post-financial crisis, global markets have observed a paradigmatic shift, whereby developed countries […]

  • The Decline of the Financial Supermarket

    The Decline of the Financial Supermarket

    The decline of the universal bank model in North America and Europe coupled with a growing need for financial services and innovation in E7 countries is radically changing the landscape of the industry. What lies ahead for the dominance of universal banks?  Before 2008, banks such as Barclays, Citigroup, Credit […]

  • By 2015 Hard Commodity Prices Will Have Collapsed

    By 2015 Hard Commodity Prices Will Have Collapsed

    For the past two years, as regular readers know, I have been bearish on hard commodities. Prices may have dropped substantially from their peaks during this time, but I don’t think the bear market is over. I think we still have a very long way to go. There are four […]

  • The Associated Press

    Will Erdogan Fall Before Al-Assad?

    Is Turkey playing a dangerous game by excessively interfering in the Syrian crisis? The following evaluates Turkish interference in Syria in the context of Russian and Iranian interests in the region. Since the start of the crisis in Syria, Turkey has publicly supported the opposition movements trying to topple down […]

  • AFP

    Zimbabwe: Economic Hurdles Persist Amidst Policy Volatility

    At 88 years old, Robert Mugabe is the oldest country leader in the world. Since taking power in 1980, he and his party, the Zimbabwe National Union Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), has been accused of widespread human rights abuses, election fraud and political intimidation. Over the course of Mugabe’s lengthy tenure, […]

  • RIA Novosti. Ruslan Krivobok

    What Russia Risks in its Attempt to Fight Inflation

    The Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) September 13 decision to go for a rate hike puts it in stark contrast with many emerging market central banks that are currently on a rate hold. This article explains the economic rationale and costs behind this decision. The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) […]

  • Ghana’s Prospect for Growth

    Ghana’s Prospect for Growth

    While Ghana’s growth prospects are encouraging, uncertainty hangs over Ghana’s ability to effectively sustain a high growth path in the midst of a challenging fiscal environment and fluctuating currency. The country’s December 7 presidential election outcome may help decide the country’s economic trajectory.  Just seventy-five miles off the coast of […]

  • QE3 Inflows to East Asia’s Fastest Growing Economies

    QE3 Inflows to East Asia’s Fastest Growing Economies

    As global macroeconomic conditions have worsened and EM growth has generally been weaker, QE3 may not have the same effect as the previous two rounds of easing for Asia overall. The exception however, may be the Philippines. In a previous article, EME looked at the risks of financial contagion from […]

  • Chavez’s Reelection: Sovereign Risk in Venezuela

    Chavez’s Reelection: Sovereign Risk in Venezuela

    Despite clear settlement of the recent presidential election, Venezuela faces continuing economic risks under Chavez. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s victory over opposition candidate Henrique Capriles in the recent October 7 election will have consequences for the country’s sovereign debt among other economic issues, though how these would have compared to […]